Africa set to unlock investment potential in oil & gas with $800bn upstream capex
Bamidele Famoofo
With an $800-billion, 20-year upstream capital expenditure (capex) programme, Africa is well positioned to present substantial oil and gas-driven opportunities for international investors, project developers and service providers.
According to Upstream Research Director at Wood Mackenzie Ian Thom, a major theme of investment for this immense capex programme will be LNG, which has emerged as one of the continent’s most lucrative sectors to drive investment and development.
In line with its commitment to spurring growth in African energy, Wood Mackenzie publishes a series of African outlook reports, providing real-time data and highlighting the latest trends and investment opportunities shaping the African commodities and energy industry. In its latest Sub-Saharan Africa Upstream: 2024 in Review report, released in January 2025, the intelligence company highlights a steady production growth, with the region’s oil and gas output posting a 5 per cent increase.
This increase, according to the report, was driven primarily by the start-up of Senegal’s Sangomar oil field and a recovery in Nigeria’s oil sector. The report also shows that mergers and acquisition spending in the region nearly doubled to $6 billion while floating LNG developments gained momentum with energy majors BP and Eni achieving start-ups in the Republic of Congo and the MSGBC Basin.
Nigeria’s oil and gas industry is undergoing a monumental shift as indigenous companies capitalise on the departure of multinational firms, seizing the opportunity to consolidate their position as leading players in the sector.
This trend has opened up a window of opportunity for local Nigerian operators to cement their presence in the industry, boosting homegrown involvement, and challenging the long-standing dominance of multinationals, in what has been considered a new dawn for the sector as it increasingly tilts towards a more local-centric model of operation.
In a landmark year for the Nigerian oil and gas sector, 2024 witnessed an unprecedented series of acquisitions of international oil companies by domestic firms.
At the forefront of this development, Renaissance Africa Energy Company, a consortium of five energy firms —ND Western, Aradel Holdings, Petrolin Group, First E&P, and WalterSmith Group, secured a $2.8 billion acquisition of Shell Petroleum Development Company’s (SPDC) 45 per cent stake in four oil mining licenses, thrusting the consortium into the ranks of major industry players in the shift towards indigenous dominance in the Nigerian energy sector.
Adding to the ongoing reshuffling of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, Seplat Energy secured a $800 million acquisition of ExxonMobil’s Nigerian assets in 2024, after nearly three years of intense negotiations.
The high-profile deal, ranking among the most significant divestments by an international oil company from the Nigerian market, represented another pivotal moment in the country’s ongoing transformation, with Indigenous firms increasingly occupying centre stage in the oil and gas sector.
Oando PLC, a leading Nigerian energy company, also made a notable splash in the oil and gas industry with its acquisition of Eni’s subsidiary, Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC), in a transaction worth $783 million, further strengthening the presence of homegrown companies in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.
Meanwhile, in the company’s Energy Transition Outlook: Africa report, released in February last year, the firm showcases a base case scenario whereby Africa’s primary energy demand will increase by 1.2 times from current levels. According to the report, this growth will be driven by the continent’s upward-trending GDP and population growth.
With exploration accelerating across the frontier and mature basins, in-depth market analysis from Wood Mackenzie will be crucial in providing global investors with real-time insights on the state of play in Africa’s upstream industry. As such, partnerships like these will be crucial for providing insight into how African countries are expanding their respective oil and gas strategies to attract new investments and create more favourable conditions for global industry players.
“Wood Mackenzie’s expertise in African commodity markets has provided the continent with a competitive advantage in attracting global investments. As African nations prioritize the development of both hydrocarbon and renewable energy resources to ensure energy security and drive industrial growth, Wood Mackenzie’s consulting, research and supply chain insights will play a key role in delivering positive outcomes for both African energy developers and international investors,” says Oré Onagbesan, AEW: Invest in African Energies Programme Director.
As a Knowledge Partner to AEW: Invest in African Energies 2025, Wood Mackenzie will build on these insights, providing the latest updates while enabling global stakeholders to navigate changes to Africa’s regulatory frameworks, fiscal incentives and policies.
Meanwhile, global data and analytics provider Wood Mackenzie has joined the African Energy Week (AEW): Invest in African Energies 2025 conference as a Knowledge Partner. Through this partnership, Wood Mackenzie brings their expertise to Africa’s premier investment platform for the energy sector, as the continent continues to drive socioeconomic development on the back of its immense resource wealth.