CIAPS advocates for African economic gains amid global trade rifts

Joy Agwunobi 

L:R, Magnus Onyeibe, policy analyst and development strategist, Vimbai Mutinhiri, a media personality and  Anthony Kila, director of CIAPS at the Trump 2.0 and Africa: Dangers and Prospects event held at the Commonwealth Institute of Advanced and Professional Studies (CIAPS) auditorium, Lagos

African nations have been advised to rethink their international approach and explore opportunities arising from the increasingly unpredictable global political landscape, shaped by escalating tensions between the US and China.

The call to action was one of the major highlights of a high-level policy dialogue in Lagos, hosted by the Commonwealth Institute of Advanced and Professional Studies (CIAPS), focused on how Africa could leverage these geopolitical shifts to its advantage, positioning itself as a proactive trade and industrial partner to the US rather than a passive aid recipient.

The forum, themed “Trump 2.0 and Africa: Dangers and Prospects,” convened academics, policy analysts, and economic thinkers to analyse the potential implications of a second Trump administration on Africa’s economic and diplomatic fortunes.

In his keynote address, public policy analyst and development strategist Magnus Onyibe argued that the geopolitical rift stemming from the decoupling of US-China trade relations presents an opportunity for Africa to redefine its global standing.

“Now is the time to reflect on Africa’s underwhelming role in global trade and find pragmatic ways to reposition the continent as a vital node in the evolving global value chain,” Onyibe stated. He added that President Trump’s sweeping tariff policies, while disruptive, are also catalytic, creating both risks and opportunities for economies willing to adapt.

Onyeibe highlighted the paradox that despite Africa’s fast rising population, estimated at 1.539 billion (18.83 per cent of the world’s total), and abundant natural resources, the continent remains marginalised in global trade. He attributed this to historical inequities rooted in colonial-era economic structures that have kept Africa on the periphery of global value chains.

While acknowledging Trump’s rationale for protectionist trade policies, including combating fentanyl and addressing trade imbalances, Onyeibe pointed out Africa’s lack of leverage to challenge unfair trade practices. However, he stressed that this very turbulence in global trade presents a silver lining as Trump’s isolationist policies may inadvertently force the U.S to seek alternative manufacturing and trade partners and Africa must be ready to step into that vacuum.

Onyeibeidentified the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a crucial mechanism for transforming Africa’s trade landscape. He suggested the agreement could strengthen Africa’s emergence as a manufacturing hub, particularly for the US, which might be compelled to relocate industries from heavily tariffed regions like China and Vietnam.

“In a previous essay, I proposed that Trump may be pivoting from aid to trade in his approach to Africa,” he recalled. “If that is the case, Africa must be prepared to welcome this transition—not merely as beneficiaries, but as equal partners offering manufacturing potential, labour, and strategic location,” he added.

Onyeibe underscored that Africa’s comparative advantage in agriculture and mineral resources remains underexploited due to subsidies in industrialised nations and insufficient local value addition. He cited opportunities in sectors like cocoa, coffee, and natural gas, where African countries could become suppliers of processed goods.

For example, he noted that high US tariffs on Mexican avocados could create a supply gap that major African growers could fill under frameworks like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Similarly, Nigeria could increase urea exports to the US, where tariffs on traditional suppliers have opened new avenues.

However, Onyeibe acknowledged some challenges, including Africa’s poor infrastructure, limited industrial financing, and weak policy environments, which deter large-scale foreign investment.

“African nations must address their infrastructure deficits if they hope to compete with Asian manufacturing hubs like Vietnam and Malaysia, which benefited from decades of strategic investment and integration into the Asian industrial ecosystem,” he said.

He also highlighted Nigeria’s gas flaring as a missed opportunity that could be capitalised on by bold investors to meet Europe’s rising energy demand.

Onyeibe further advocated for intentional partnerships between African entrepreneurs and wealthy African-American and US billionaires, arguing that private-sector collaborations could unlock substantial development opportunities.

“There is no shortage of entrepreneurial talent in Africa,” he asserted. “What is needed is a strategic alliance with like-minded investors in the U.S. who understand the continent’s potential and are willing to co-create its next chapter.”

He challenged US business magnates to consider Africa as a frontier for economic expansion, drawing a parallel with President Nixon’s normalisation of US-China relations. “If Trump’s second term results in a decoupling from China, why shouldn’t Africa aspire to become America’s new strategic partner?” he questioned.

To realise this vision, Onyeibe recommended that African governments prioritise:

• Trade facilitation – by simplifying customs procedures and eliminating bureaucratic red tape. 
• Infrastructure development – investing in transport, energy, and digital infrastructure to support industrial growth. 
• Business environment reform – enacting pro-investment policies and regulations to attract global capital.

He concluded by urging Africa to seize this moment of sweeping changes engendered by Trump’s second coming to the White House not as a threat or danger, but as an opportunity to renegotiate its place in global trade, by adding value, fostering local production, and becoming an active partner in global manufacturing and economic integration.

In his opening remarks, Anthony Kila, director of CIAPS, emphasised the institute’s commitment to fostering meaningful dialogue on pressing global and regional issues. “This event forms part of our Roundtable Series and Open Lecture platform. “It reflects our dedication to shaping public discourse and influencing narratives with the aim of driving informed action,”Kila noted.

Kila underscored that U.S. President Donald Trump’s re-emergence on the global stage has reignited debate over America’s foreign policy direction, with Africa needing to carefully consider the repercussions. 

“If there’s anything currently shaking the global order, it is the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s political comeback and its impact on international relations. The real question isn’t just about what Trump does but how Africa responds,” he said.

Kila urged African stakeholders to move beyond passive observation, advocating instead for a proactive mindset in addressing global changes. 

“The world is changing, but what truly matters is how we as Africans react to these changes. We must approach global shifts with a sense of duty, responsibility, and strategic intent,” he added.