A new report concludes the end of the North American Free Trade Agreement would trim just over half a percentage point from Canada’s economy.
It finds that the end of NAFTA would shave 0.55% off Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP), push 25,000-50,000 Canadians from the workforce, and reduce exports by 2.8%.
The report comes from Dan Ciuriak, the former head of computer modeling for Canada’s foreign affairs ministry.
Now a private consultant, Ciuriak spent recent weeks analyzing the numbers for a report for the C.D. Howe Institute, Toronto-based public policy think tank.
The damage predicted in his report is the equivalent of a noticeable economic downturn, albeit far less than the 2.5% GDP loss he said he was expecting to find in an interview last month, as he began his work.
Ciuriak said the damage would be almost completely offset if the original 1987 Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement were to survive the NAFTA.
Preserving the Canada-Mexico partnership in NAFTA would have only a very slight impact on the damage if the U.S. leaves, Ciuriak also found.