OPEC sees US oil supply rise as share of global crude production drops to 32.8% in Feb

OPEC said Wednesday that US oil production is set to rise further this year as the organisation crude production decreased by 77 thousand barrels per day to 32.19 million barrels per day in February,

According to the organization, the crude market will continue to rebalance as cartel members and Russia trim their output in a bid to support prices.

In February, output in non-OPEC countries reached 66.01 mb/d up by 450 thousand b/d from January levels.

The share of OPEC crude oil in total global production was a drop of 0.2 percent to 32.8 percent in February, compared with January.

However, world oil supply increased by 37 thousand b/d in February to average 98.20 mb/d compared to January.

The organisation said crude oil output increased the most in Nigeria with 24.9 thousand b/d, Angola with 17.1 thousand b/d and Libya with 9.9 thousand b/d, while production showed declines in Venezuela with 52.4 thousand b/d, U.A.E. with 34.3 thousand b/d and Iraq with 25.5 thousand b/d.

The US supply increase is expected to come as the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries, dominated by oil giant Saudi Arabia, works with Russia to slash output after prices for crude plummeted to around $30 per barrel in 2016 from over $100 two years earlier.

Meanwhile OPEC countries said they will continue to honour their 2016 agreement to keep supply low.

On the demand side, OPEC revised higher its expectations.

With global economic growth strong at 3.8 percent, oil demand will be strong this year, OPEC said, particularly in China.

“The current healthy momentum in the global economy, together with the efforts undertaken by the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries … is supporting the rebalancing of the oil market fundamentals,” the report said.

For 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.60 mb/d and global oil demand is now expected to reach 98.60 mb/d, marginally higher than last month’s assessment.

OPEC crude for 2018 was revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the previous report to stand at 32.6 mb/d, 0.2 mb/d lower than the level in 2017. Crude production is expected to reach almost 33.5 mb/d in the second half of the year.

“In 2018, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.60 mb/d to average 98.63 mb/d, marginally higher than last month’s assessment. Most of the oil demand growth is anticipated to originate from Other Asia, led by China, followed by India and then by OECD Americas. Similar to 2017, the OECD region saw an upward revision by 20 thousand b/d in the first quarter of 2018 amid solid initial data for OECD Americas.

Additionally, in the non-OECD region, oil demand growth projections were adjusted higher by 20 thousand b/d in the first quarter of 2018 compared with last month’s report, mainly reflecting the solid pace of growth for India in January 2018,” the report said.

According to the report, the number of world oil rigs, a sign for future production potential, increased to 2,351 while OPEC’s share of the total world oil rig count amounted to 575.