Rivers $28.4bn economy back on edge over Supreme Court’s verdict
- Investors leaving in droves
- State lost N2trn public sector investment in 12 yrs
Ben Eguzozie, in Port Harcourt
Governor Siminalayi Fubara
Rivers State’s $28.4 billion economy is back on edge following the unsettling Supreme Court judgement on 28 February. It was hardly out of politically-instigated ruffles since Governor Siminalayi Fubara came into office in May 2023. This time around, the sub-national’s economy
might just move uncontrollably further southward into bottoming out.
The Supreme Court verdict seems to have reawakened seething political wars. Soon after the ruling by a 5-member panel of justices, which seem to favour Nyesom Wike, the FCT minister, the 27 lawmakers loyal to him delivered a 48-hour ultimatum to Governor Fubara to table the 2025 budget.
The Supreme Court nullified the local government council elections held on October 5, 2024, insisting that the state electoral commission, Rivers State Independent Electoral Commission (RSIEC) did not follow the necessary procedures in organising the polls. The apex court also barred the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Accountant General of the Federation from releasing the monthly allocations due to Rivers State until after the conduct of a fresh election into the state’s 23 LGAs. That Governor Fubara must represent the 2024 state appropriation bill
to the Martins Amaewhule-led legislators.
Next, the apex court’s verdict has emboldened Martins Amaewhule’s 27-member faction. They have engaged in a frenzy: issuing series of ultimatums to Governor Fubara: 48 hours to table the 2025 budget before them; a notice to amend the local council electoral law, though the RSIEC
had announced new date for election giving the mandatory 90 days.
The 27-member lawmakers faction issued an order inviting RSIEC chairman Adulphus Enebeli (who is a retired judge) to appear before them or face arrest. Again, the Amaewhule-led lawmakers are compiling what they called Governor Fubara’s “offences” which could lead to his impeachment.
Economic growth by all indices has been few or non-existent in oil-rich Rivers state since May 2023, as unsettling socio-political environment has scared investors stiff. Oil business operators might soon be forced to issue a force majeure on account of another ultimatum by “the creek
boys” (a loose description of militants who often operate in the Niger Delta creeks) warning that they will rupture oil flow from the installations in the creeks. Now Nigeria’s hydrocarbon industry appears to be at grim risk in all of this.
Counter ultimatum from ‘creek boys’
Earlier this week, a gang wielding assault rifles, dressed in militant colours showed a video clip where they threatened to stop Nigeria’s oil business should Rivers’ federal revenue allocation be truly stopped by the CBN, as the Supreme Court had ordered. The militant gang said: “We will not allow our oil to flow to Nigeria (if) we do not get our share”. Ijaw National Congress (INC) president Benjamin Okaba criticised the Supreme Court verdict, saying it was insensitive to Ijaws’ contribution to Nigeria’s socio-political and economic growth.
“The apex court did not take into cognisance the sacrifices of Ijaws to the peace, unity, and stability of Rivers state, in its decisions,” Okaba said.
He warned there will be dire consequences that may follow the removal of Governor Fubara. “Any move to impeach the Rivers State governor will destabilise the Niger Delta region and disrupt oil production,” the INC leader vowed.
Nyesom Wike
Some economists and few investors informed Business A.M. in Port Harcourt that the Supreme Court verdict will throw up another round of economic loss in the state, with shattering consequences. Bitter political tiff between incumbent Governor Fubara and his political godfather, Wike has kept the state’s economy on a precipice since August 2023.
A failed impeachment of the governor by the state House of Assembly led to torching of the state Assembly complex. Wike has made several dreadful statements. For example, he boastfully declared: “I can paralyse governance in Rivers, and nothing will happen”.
Since then, the state’s socio-economic landscape has been hamstrung. Rivers, Nigeria’s oil capital, with the second largest city chamber of commerce, PHCCIMA, after Lagos, has been suffering perhaps its worst level of socio-economic dislocation. The economic sector has simply buckled under post-election political spat between Fubara and Wike.
Jim Nelson Black’s epic When Nations Die, now aptly describes the odious situation in Rivers State. Black’s 10 warning signs for decline and fall of civilizations are evident in the oil-rich state, such as: crisis of lawlessness; loss of economic discipline; rising bureaucracy; decline of education; weakening of cultural foundations; loss of respect for tradition; increase in materialism; rise in immorality; decay of religious belief, and devaluing of human life. All these now sadly play out in Rivers. If unchecked, may well lead to the state’s decline, like Black predicted.
Economic fatalities of political spat
Rivers, since 2010 has lost projects amounting to N1.911 trillion that would have bolstered the state’s $25 billion GDP. The projects were abandoned due to political misgiving by successive chief executives in the state. First, the stalled N250bn bond approved by the State Assembly during Rotimi Amaechi administration.
Rotimi Amaechi
The other is the N375bn World Bank water project for Port Harcourt urban. The failure to drawdown this facility keeps Port Harcourt today a borehole
city. Then, the N250bn Port Harcourt monorail project, started by Amaechi, but clearly abandoned by Wike (2015-2023). What with the N100bn annual expenditure Greater Port Harcourt City (GPH) project, started by Amaechi but distanced by Wike.
The N3.6bn Rivers Songhai Farm Initiative (RSFI), which was 20 times the size of the copy in Benin Republic. John Deer of California, USA, had emerged the preferred bidder, and was to use it to kickstart its West Africa targeted farm-tractor manufacturing centre. But Wike killed it because it was linked to Amaechi.
There was the N45bn auto-destruct syringe factory in Port Harcourt with capacity to service the West African market. Wike’s government distanced itself from the project which was already producing. Few years ago vandals began freely removing long-span roofs, steel bars and other vital facilities.
The same fate visited the N4bn each model college which was already being managed by Indian educational expatriates. In addition to these losses, several key companies were chased out of the state due to Wike’s combative state diplomacy. Expatriates in the oil and gas industry have been taking their flights out of the state. Many other companies were serially being squeezed thin by the current Nigerian national economic recession. Indicators show Rivers, since 2017, leads other Nigerian sub-nationals with the highest unemployment and underemployment rates, according to consecutive data aggregated from the National Bureau Statistics (NBS).
It is still on record that Wike used executive fiat to terminate the sale of four state-owned power plants totalling $302 million, with generating capacity of 541 megawatts. The four gas-fired power plants located at Omoku (150 megawatts), Trans Amadi (136 megawatts), Afam (180
megawatts) and Eleme (75 megawatts) were sold to NG Power HPS, an affiliate of Sahara Energy, owned by billionaire businessman, Tonye Cole, Amaechi’s joker for Rivers APC 2019 governorship bid. Today the entire assets lay in freeze mode, bringing zero revenue to the state’s economy.
Fiscal decline
Economists at the Institute of Chartered Economists of Niger (ICEN) predicted that it will require N300 billion yearly sustained internal revenue generation (IGR) outside the state budgets, to rejig Rivers state’s key infrastructure. However, the state’s budgets have comparatively been on a gradual decline since 2010, according to ICEN economic analysts.
In 2010, Rivers ranked same with Lagos with N429bn appropriation each. By 2024 Lagos has soared 300 times above Rivers. The former budgeted N2.23 trillion, whereas Rivers managed N800bn. Yet this budget is now a subject of extreme litigation. The Supreme Court’s February 28, 2025 ruling nullified it. Same with the N1.176 trillion of 2025.
Receding per capita income
The 15-year Rivers’ steady economic loss is Lagos’ steady economic lift, economists told Business A.M. For example, whereas Rivers’ subnational per capita income hovers at $2,772, Lagos’s has grossed to $6,100. This translates that a Rivers man currently operates at less than half the lifestyle of a Lagosian.
In GDP terms, Lagos grew from a N12 trillion GDP in 2010 to some N44.17 trillion by 2024, accounting for 35% of Nigeria’s total GDP, but Rivers is still at N7 trillion.