Weak production pushes Nigeria off booming coffee market
Onome Amuge
The recent increase in global coffee prices, driven by shortages in top coffee-producing countries, has left Nigerian coffee farmers on the sidelines, unable to capitalise on the lucrative international market.
According to market data, poor weather conditions in the world’s top coffee producing countries, has driven global coffee prices to a 14-month high. Arabica coffee recently hit $3.66 per pound, reflecting a 14.8 percent increase in 2025. Meanwhile, Robusta coffee rose to $5,609 per metric tonne.
Despite favourable growing conditions and a rich history of coffee production, Nigeria’s coffee industry has been hamstrung by structural deficiencies, limited investment, and low-quality seeds. This has rendered Nigerian coffee farmers unable to match the prices and productivity of their African counterparts in Kenya, Rwanda, and Ethiopia, who have successfully leveraged the global price rally to their advantage.
The global coffee market has been experiencing steady growth in recent years, according to data from Straits Research, with the market size reaching $97.71 billion in 2024. The forecast for 2025 indicates continued growth, with the market projected to reach $102.98 billion and further expand to $156.85 billion by 2033, reflecting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.4 percent over the eight-year forecast period.
The expansive coffee industry, spanning over 50 countries and estimated to provide employment to over 25 million people worldwide, remains a significant player in the global economy.
Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia are the largest coffee producing nations and hold a dominant position in the export market, strengthened by increasing demand in emerging economies and a renewed interest in specialty coffee and product innovation in developed nations.
As global temperatures continue to rise and rainfall patterns shift, coffee production faces a daunting challenge, with experts warning of declining yields in the top producing nations.
Studies conducted by agronomists have indicated that the current trends of rising temperatures and altered precipitation will likely have a negative impact on the cultivation of both Arabica and Robusta coffee varieties, leading to a reduction in production capacity in countries that have traditionally dominated the market.
As top producing nations contend with the effects of climate change on coffee production, smaller players like Nigeria have the chance to seize a significant opportunity in the lucrative, yet highly competitive, coffee market.
With the looming decline in production among traditional powerhouses, industry experts are urging nations like Nigeria to accelerate their coffee cultivation efforts, positioning themselves to benefit from the anticipated gap in global supply.
Nigeria’s coffee production/export status
Nigeria joined the International Coffee Organization (ICO) in late 2021. The development, finalied on 30 November 2021, followed the country’s ratification of the International Coffee Agreement (ICA) 2007, bringing Nigeria into the global coffee market alongside 75 other countries that together account for 97 percent of world coffee production and exports, and over two-thirds of coffee imports.
With the ratification, it is expected that Nigeria coffee farmers will have opportunities to improve the yield of coffee that they grow and will have access to objective and comprehensive information on the world coffee market, with regular reports on market situation and economic studies to inform decision making. It was also noted that both Nigeria and the ICO will benefit through the sharing of best practices to produce, trade and increase consumption of coffee.
Despite Nigeria’s ratification of the International Coffee Agreement (ICA) in 2021, the country’s coffee output has failed to meet expectations, with productivity remaining significantly lower than anticipated.
According to market data presented by ReportLinker, a tech company specializing in data analysis, Nigeria’s coffee production is forecasted to decrease by 0.4 percent between 2021 and 2026, with an estimated output of 40.3 thousand 60-kg bags in 2026, a decline from the 41.2 thousand bags produced in 2021.
While coffee production in Nigeria remains stagnant, the country’s coffee consumption is expected to see an increase over the next few years, according to ReportLinker’s analysis.
The study projects that Nigeria’s coffee consumption will reach 8.8 thousand metric tonnes by 2026, a slight increase from the eight thousand metric tonnes recorded in 2021.
According to Usman Hassan Kakara, secretary-general of the National Coffee and Tea Association of Nigeria (NCTAN), the country’s underwhelming coffee output can be attributed to a lack of government intervention, resulting in insufficient training, improved varieties, and financial support for local farmers.
Kakara identified the government’s absence in the coffee industry as the primary reason behind the underperformance, highlighting the lack of training and access to improved coffee varieties as key factors. Furthermore, he noted that the absence of soft loans for farmers has discouraged increased coffee production, leading to a persistent stagnation in the sector.
Kakara noted that the country’s geography is well-suited for coffee production, with regions in the South-South, East, and West offering optimal conditions for the crop’s growth.
According to the Taraba State coffee farmer,, coffee, tea, and cocoa could play a crucial role in driving Nigeria’s agricultural sector, given their significant potential as cash crops.
Tekenah, addressed the need for holistic improvements to the coffee industry in Nigeria, pointing out that there is a lack of local companies dedicated to creating sustainable, locally-focused coffee brands and a lack of ingenuity throughout the value chain, from production to consumption.
She also stressed that there are no national policies that protect coffee production, leaving coffee growers and the industry as a whole vulnerable to market fluctuations and economic uncertainties.
Furthermore, Tekenah noted that the private sector has been slow to invest in coffee-related projects, hindering the growth and development of this potentially lucrative sector in Nigeria.
“Looking at what has happened to the agricultural sector as a whole, it’s still the same thing that has been going on. We have these raw materials but we don’t create products and services from it. We export our raw materials and then they take it and sell it back to us at a certain price,” she said.
The CEO of Happy Coffee highlighted the urgent need for government intervention and support from financial institutions to boost Nigeria’s coffee industry.
She also called for government financing and support in several key areas, including production of locally grown coffee, distribution, local processing, and innovative solutions that strengthen the coffee value chain.
The World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews (WJARR) revealed that coffee is grown commercially in fourteen states across Nigeria, covering over 5000 hectares of land.
The states actively engaged in coffee production include Kogi, Ondo, Taraba, Abia, Ogun, Ekiti, Kwara, Oyo, Cross River, Bauchi, Edo, Akwa Ibom, Delta, and Plateau.
The journal, in a review article titled“Production trend of coffee in Nigeria”, noted that robusta is the primary coffee species grown in Nigeria and accounts for 94 percent, arabica accounts for four per cent ,and Liberica accounts for two percent of Nigeria’s coffee production.
Despite coffee’s importance for economic growth and poverty reduction, the study disclosed that the coffee production trend in Nigeria has shown a highly significant level of decline over time. It stated that poor pricing and marketing channels particularly at the international level, aging coffee trees, lack of training on good agricultural practices, lack of government support,lack of government support and investments in the coffee sector in terms of capital and access to credit,have locked coffee production into low performance trap,leading to poor productivity and abandoned farmlands.
To avert the downward trend in Nigeria coffee production, the study emphasised the importance of fundings to address the limitations imposed by a lack of credit.
“Farmers should be well oriented on the procedure to follow in accessing credit and also increase their level of awareness on the existing policy through radio, television and newspaper allowing farmers to take advantage of the opportunity,” it advised.
With global coffee demand on the rise and prices soaring, Nigeria risks losing out on a valuable opportunity if swift action is not taken to restructure its coffee sector.
According to analysts, without urgent investments in high-quality seedlings, advanced training for farmers, and modern processing facilities, the country’s coffee farmers may continue to struggle to compete in the global market, missing out on the significant economic potential and profitability associated with coffee production.