Africa must wake up from its slumber over Climate Change!

Francis Kokutse, in Accra, Ghana  

Francis Kokutse is a journalist based in Accra and writes for Associated Press (AP), University World News, as well as Science and Development.Net. He was a Staff Writer of African Concord and Africa Economic Digest in London, UK.

The latest talk about Climate Change demands that African leaders should start working to find solutions  to future threats in order not to be overtaken by events. Actuaries worldwide have started issuing cautions on the future of Climate Change, for this reason, African leaders must wake up to the realities of what is being said.

In a new report, the actuaries called for a “more realistic climate risk assessments,” which they said must include the  “risk of ruin”: the point past which global society can no longer adapt to climate change.

They warned  that global heating could be accelerating, and possibly breached the 1.5°C goal, adding that, “could trigger multiple tipping points, such as the collapse of the Greenland ice sheets, with potentially irreversible effects,” they added.

This means that African governments should not be waiting, until their countries have been overtaken by events,  before they start looking for what to do. In fact, what the actuaries are saying does show that Africa must not pretend to be deaf to the discussions on Climate Change any longer.

In their report, “Climate Scorpion: the sting is in the tail”  by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and the University of Exeter ––  the actuaries argued for the need to  use financial services risk management to evaluate and communicate climate risk. They then called for the advocacy of the  “worst-case” scenario thinking around climate change.

The IFoA is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body. Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial. As a learned society, they use research  to fulfil their  royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.

Actuaries provide commercial, financial, and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals as well as on  social and public interest issues.

Among other things, the key findings of the report said, “the rate  of global warming accelerated in 2023,” which the report said, had an  early indication that this may not be temporary, because the rate of global warming accelerated last year. In addition, scientists are not yet sure what is the cause, and therefore do not know how much of this is a temporary fluctuation or permanent change.

Furthermore, it said life in the tail-increased warming is now driving more severe impacts across the planet, indicating that climate change has arrived, with severe impacts emerging  at lower temperatures than expected. It also noted that climate risks are complex, interconnected and could threaten the basis of  society and economy, for which a system  approach is required to consider how connected risks might increase societal impacts.

“Even without considering cascading impacts, there is a 5% chance of annual insured losses of over $200 billion in the next decade, with total (insured and uninsured) economic losses breaching the $1 trillion mark,” the report said.

It also said an overshoot of the 1.5°C temperature threshold is likely, an indication that, there is an increasing disconnect between current net zero carbon budgets and the 1.5°C temperature goal, with several  scientific agencies reporting that levels of global warming in 2023 were close to or already at 1.5°C.

“An overshoot of the 1.5°C temperature goal by 2030 is increasingly likely and current net zero carbon budgets give a low probability of limiting temperature. We need to re-calibrate carbon budgets, given uncertainty and experience to date,” the report said.

Based on their key findings, the report said,  “our world knows not what it is gambling with, and if we don’t control this fire, it will burn us all down,” adding that, “the earth’s climate may be more sensitive than we thought, meaning the planet may warm more quickly than expected for a given level of greenhouse gases.”

They said, this would  increase carbon budgets and it is not clear how much more warming the world is committed to post 2030, an uncertainty due to many factors, including ice melt rate decreasing earth  albedo, the impact of aerosol cooling, climate tipping points, and the pace of the energy transition.

What is also worrying is the fact that, warming above 1.5°C  is  dangerous, because it increases the risk of  triggering multiple climate tipping points, which include the collapse of ice sheets in  Greenland, West Antarctica and the Himalayas, permafrost melt, Amazon dieback and the halting of major ocean current circulation.

The report said, “passing  these thresholds may constitute an ecological point of no return, after which it may be practically impossible to return the climate to pre-industrial (Holocene) stability. They also said, tipping points  may interact to form tipping cascades, which act to further accelerate the rate of warming and climate impacts. Global  warming is driven by the concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, which are increasing due to human activity.

“The greenhouse effect means that there is more energy coming in (absorbed sunlight) than energy going out (heat radiated to space). This is referred to as earth’s  energy imbalance. Even if we reduced emissions to zero today, because of the level of GHGs already in the atmosphere, warming would continue until the Earth reaches thermal equilibrium, a state where energy absorbed from sunlight is equal to heat radiated back out to space,” the report said.

Sandy Trust, lead author and IFoA council member, said: “There is an urgent need to provide policymakers with realistic assessments of climate risk, to support decisive policy action to accelerate the energy transition. Alongside clarity on the risks, we need to invest in educating policymakers and the public on positive tipping points and behavioural change to support a more rapid transition.

“As actuaries, we have a responsibility to play an active role in addressing the sustainability challenge. Our long-term thinking, financial system understanding, risk management mindset and probabilistic reasoning combine powerfully to complement climate science and communicate risks clearly to regulators and policymakers,” Trust added.

Professor Tim Lenton, from the University of Exeter, said  “this  report puts forward the case for why and how the actuarial approach can be used for climate change. It compellingly argues that we should view climate risk as a problem of ‘Planetary Solvency,’ understanding and managing risks to the long-term survival of global society. In short, we need to have a best guess about the worst-case and make policy on that basis.”

Professor Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute Climate Impact Research, said “the  report shows how important it is for us to collaborate across disciplines on climate change. It re-emphasises how important it is to treat 1.5°C as a physical limit and not a political target, recognising the risk from tipping points. Four of these are showing scientific evidence of now being at risk already at 1.5°C, really putting humanity’s future at risk. This is a planetary crisis which we must address with co-ordinated policy action to accelerate the energy transition.”

Lord Stern, chair of the Grantham Institute, said: “This report underlines just how overwhelming the scientific evidence is now: helping politicians to understand that climate change presents very serious global risks, to life, health, and wealth, demanding an urgent global response from policymakers to avoid the worst impacts. We are already experiencing the impacts of climate change, and these will worsen, impacting the basic elements of life for people around the world – access to water, food production, health, and the environment. Unfortunately, the current pace of progress is not nearly rapid enough and if we fail to curb the impact of climate change, it could damage society and the global economy more than the World Wars.”

The actuaries have spoken, whether African leaders will join in finding a solution to the threats of Climate Change is something one cannot tell. Hopefully, the continent will not be waiting for donor funding!

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