Buhari leaves on a ‘high’ as inflation, 9% in May 2015, prints 22% in March 2023

By Onome Amuge

President Muhammadu Buhari took over as head of government of Nigeria with inflation at 9.01 percent, but with the March inflation data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showing no signs of a let up, it is now all but certain that this must be one of the ways the president will leave on a “high”, a clear sign of leaving the people more impoverished than they were when he assumed the presidency about eight years ago. Already in the third month of the sign off year for President Buhari, Nigeria’s inflation rate rose for the third consecutive month to 22.04 percent in March 2023, representing an increase of 0.13 percent from 21.91 percent posted in February 2023, latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show. The rise partly captured the negative impact of the cash scarcity witnessed across the country during the period in review before the decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria to keep the old N200, N500 and N1,000 notes back in circulation until December 2023.

The report, which measured the rate of changes in prices of goods and services, noted that on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 6.13 per cent points higher compared to 15.92 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of February 2023.

NBS disclosed that the contributions of items on the divisional level to the increase in the headline index include food & non-alcoholic beverages which rose 11.42 per cent; housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuel which increased 3.69 per cent; clothing & footwear which were up 1.69 per cent; transport which increased 1.43 per cent; 1.11 per cent increase in the cost of furnishings, household equipment & maintenance; and 0.87 per cent rise in the education index.

Other increases included health (0.66 per cent); miscellaneous goods & services (0.37 per cent); restaurant & hotels (0.27 per cent); alcoholic beverage, tobacco & kola (0.24 per cent); recreation & culture (0.15 per cent), and communication (0.15 per cent).

On a month-on-month basis, the percentage change in the All-Items Index in March 2023 stood at 1.86 per cent, 0.15 percentage points higher than the 1.71 per cent rate recorded in February 2023. This, according to the report, means that on average, the general price level was 0.15 per cent higher in March relative to February 2023.

The report further showed that the percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months period ending March 2023 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was  20.37 per cent, indicating a 3.83 percentage increase compared to 16.54 per cent recorded in March 2022.

The urban inflation rate in March 2023 rose to 23.07 per cent, 6.63 percentage points higher year-on-year, compared to the 16.44 per cent recorded in March 2022.

On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate stood at 2.00 per cent, 0.15 percentage points higher  compared to 1.85 per cent recorded in February  2023. Meanwhile, the corresponding twelve-months average for the urban inflation rate was 21.00 per cent in March 2023,3.90 percentage points higher compared to the 17.10 per cent recorded in March 2022.

In a similar trend, the rural inflation rate was higher in March at 21.09 per cent, rising 5.67 percentage points on a year-on-year basis,compared to the 15.42 per cent recorded in March 2022. On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in March stood at 1.72 per cent,up by 0.14 percentage points compared to 1.58 per cent recorded in February 2023. The report also noted that the corresponding twelve-months average for the rural inflation rate in March 2023 was 19.79 per cent, 3.79 percentage points above the 16.00 per cent recorded in March 2022.

The food inflation rate in  March 2023 was 24.45 per cent on a year-on-year basis, which was 7.25 percentage  points higher compared to the 17.20 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of March 2022.

The NBS attributed the increase in food inflation to rise in prices of oil and fat, bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, fish, fruits, meat, vegetable, and spirits.

On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in March 2023 was 2.07 per cent, which was 0.16 per cent higher  compared to 2.08 per cent  reported in February 2023. The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve-months ending March 2023 over the previous twelve-months average was 22.72 per cent, which was a 3.50 percentage points increase from 19.21 per cent,the average annual rate of change recorded in March 2022.