Nigeria economy sustains positive growth since emergence from recession in Q2 2017
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Nigeria economy has maintained positive growth since its emergence from recession in Q2 2017, according to the data released by the country’s Bureau of statistics Tuesday.
The NBS data shows that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.83 percent higher by 2.42 percent in 2017 after shrinking by -1.58 percent in 2016, which was its first annual contraction in 25 years. The entire economy grew in the fourth quarter of 2017 by 1.92 percent- year-on-year.
Aggregate GDP stood at N31 trillion in nominal terms, higher than N29 trillion in Q4 2016, resulting in a nominal GDP growth of 6.99 percent.
The growth, according to NBS, is compared to a contraction of –1.73% recorded in Q4 2016 and a growth of 1.40% recorded in Q 2017.
Nigeria’s economy, which depends largely on crude sales, fell into recession in 2016 chiefly as a result of low crude prices and militant attacks on oil facilities in the Niger Delta region.
It returned to growth in the second quarter of 2017 but the recovery has been fragile since it is largely due to higher oil prices. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in December that the economy remains vulnerable.
Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa at Standard Chartered, according to Reuters, said “The growth rate still lags far behind where Nigeria should be,” noting that the full-year growth was higher than the 0.7 percent forecast by her bank.
“Unless the 2018 budget is approved soon … higher oil prices alone are not going to be sufficient to provide a really strong lift to the GDP numbers,” she said.
According to the report, the annual growth of the oil sector stood at 4.79 percent higher than the previous year’s growth of -14.45 percent.
The Oil sector contributed 7.17 percent of total real GDP in Q4 2017, up from figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2016, but down from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 6.75 percent and 10.04 percent respectively. The sector’s annual contribution was 8.68 percent in 2017 and 8.35 percent in 2016.
Oil production averaged at 1.91million barrels per day (mbpd), -0.12million barrels lower than the daily average production recorded in the third quarter of 2017. Oil production during the quarter, though, was higher by 0.15million barrels per day relative to the corresponding quarter in 2016, which recorded an output of 1.76mbpd.
Real growth of the oil sector was 8.38% (year-on-year) in Q4 2017, the report revealed.
This represents some 26.08 percent decline relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016. Growth reduced by -17.50 percent when compared to Q3 2017 which was 25.89 percent Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector dropped by -25.52 percent in Q4 2017.
The non-oil sector, NBS said, grew by 1.45% in real terms during the reference quarter. This is higher by 1.78% point compared to the rate recorded same quarter, 2016 and 2.21% point higher than in the third quarter of 2017.
It recorded an annual growth of 0.47% compared to -0.22 in 2016, largely due to improved strength in the agricultural (Crop) sector, Trade, and Transportation and storage.
In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 92.83% to the nation’s GDP, lower from share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2016 (93.25%) but higher than in the third quarter of 2017 (89.96%). Annual contribution was 91.32% and 91.65% in 2016, NBS said.