Oilseeds rebounded Wednesday on a broadly upward direction, with sustained impressions that the Argentine rains, which came in the weekend and sent soy prices tumbling, were not robust, and were too late in the day to have saved yields.
“The amounts were in the range of 1-2 inches, but the coverage was confined to generally southeastern Cordoba, far southern Santa Fe, and northern Buenos Aires,” said Michael Cordonnier, at Soybean and Corn Advisor, who cut his forecast for the Argentine soy crop by one million tonnes to 42 million tonnes.
Where they fell, the rains did help the crops, but the coverage was probably not widespread enough to change the overall dry pattern for the country.
“In addition, the rains were too late for the early maturing soybeans,” he said.
While there are ideas of Argentina having enough soybeans stock to keep its processors and exports going, crush data for February at 2.37 million tonnes, were not so reassuring.
“This is down nine percent from last year and down 13 percent from their January crush report,” said Terry Reilly at Futures International, noting a “lack of farmer sales and production losses.”
Certainly, Chicago soymeal futures for May added 0.7 percent to $364.20 a short tonne, keeping ahead of their rising 50-day moving average.
Chicago soybeans themselves for May added 0.4 percent to $10.32 half a bushel, undermined by softness in soyoil, often the target of investor spreading against soymeal, and which added just 0.1 percent for May to 31.76 cents a pound.
Frontpage October 22, 2019